Harold Cole (University of Pennsylvania) și Lee Ohanian (UCLA) demontează (pentru a câta oară?) mitul că economia iese din criză grație politicii de stimulare a cererii. Studiu de caz: Marea Depresiune.
But boosting aggregate demand did not end the Great Depression. After the initial stock market crash of 1929 and subsequent economic plunge, a recovery began in the summer of 1932, well before the New Deal. The Federal Reserve Board’s Index of Industrial production rose nearly 50% between the Depression’s trough of July 1932 and June 1933. This was a period of significant deflation. Inflation began after June 1933, following the demise of the gold standard. Despite higher aggregate demand, industrial production was roughly flat over the following year.
One reason that many believe higher aggregate demand brought about by government spending programs and monetary expansion created recovery is because unemployment did decline between 1933 and 1937. But declining unemployment reflected significant work-sharing in New Deal policies that began in 1933 with the President’s Reemployment Agreement and continued with the National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933 and the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938.
Ha, ha, ha! Adică Roosevelt a făcut exact precum guvernul Boc (mai degrabă e adevărată viceversa) atunci când a anunțat 1 000 000 de contracte noi de muncă în patru luni de zile.
Explică sociologul Mircea Kivu:
Scamatoria e simplǎ: dacǎ în loc de un contract pe un an, înregistrezi 12 contracte pe o lunǎ, se cheamǎ (în viziunea premierului) cǎ ai creat 11 locuri de muncǎ. Realitatea este cǎ s-au mai pierdut 80 de mii.